Driver-less cars impact your decisions now

I don’t think there’s any doubt that driverless cars are going to change the world.  They’ll be safer, cleaner, more efficient, eliminate/reduce traffic jams, and on and on.  The future looks bright . . . but what does that have to do with today?

The big question isn’t if but when.  A few years back Google and Uber and GM and everyone else were figuring out prototypes, and putting them on the road in a very limited way.  They told us not to get too excited—driverless cars wouldn’t become mainstream until way in the future: Think 2030 or 2040 when they became standard fare.

Yet that seems to have inched significantly closer.  Tesla today has driveless cars.  GM claims it will sell cars without steering wheels and pedals in 2019—THAT’S NEXT YEAR PEOPLE!!!

But back to the question at hand: what does that have to do with today?

 

Buying a car has big financial implications

Purchasing a car is a big deal that can greatly impact your personal finances (finally, Stocky, you’re getting to the point).  Getting that right or wrong can mean hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars.  Let’s really simplify the world to two scenarios:

  1. The Stocky method: You buy a car new, finance it at the teaser rate, and drive it until it goes to heaven.
  2. The Ocelot method: You lease a car and then turn it in after 3 years.

Certainly there are other options (1a—you buy a three year old car and drive that into the ground), but let’s just look at these two.

As you would expect, from a financial perspective option #1 wins big time.  A “typical” car like a Honda Accord costs about $22,000.  You could buy it for $2,500 down and then take advantage of 1% APR financing so you’ll have monthly payments of $332 for the next 5 years.  Or you could lease it for $2,500 down, and then pay $200 per month for the next three years; after which you turn the old car in and start it all over again.

Cars are engineered incredibly well, so let’s assume the car you buy lasts 24 years (I am the proud owner of a 1998 Toyota 4Runner).  If you run the numbers, buying a car comes out ahead to the tune of about $90,000.  That’s astounding considering the original purchase is only $22,000.

Bear in mind that’s $90,000 per car each time you make a purchase/lease decision.  For a married couple, it comes to about $800k over their investing horizon.  Remember that the average American has a net worth of about $80,000.  Heck, if you didn’t save a dime in your 401k or do any of the other stuff we talk about, just the car purchase decision could fund your retirement.

Of course, it’s not a perfect comparison.  The major advantage of a lease is you get a new car every three years—that’s a safer car, a nicer car, plus the option to change the car as your situation changes.  But $800,000 is $800,000 after all.

The point is that financially it makes a lot more sense to buy a car than lease.

 

Driverless cars completely changes the car purchasing decision

Let’s bring this full circle now.  We’re on the brink of driverless cars changing everything.  Once they come out, you’d be crazy not to go with that option.  In fact, I think car insurance will make it much more expensive not to use driverless cars, and before too long human-driven cars will be banned (the same way horse carriages are banned on highways today).

We’re definitely in the kill zone.  Foxy and I are wondering how much longer the 4Runner has—I say many more years but I think she secretly tries to put sugar in the gas tank to kill it when I’m not paying attention.

If we had to get a new car today, what would we do?  Normally it’s a no-brainer: you buy a new car and drive it forever.  However, for that decision to make sense you have to drive that car for years.  Actually, the breakeven point is at about 8 years.  Is there any doubt that by 2026 we’ll have really good driverless cars?  At the rate things are going, we’ll have them in 8 months, not 8 years.

Futurists make a really exciting debate about what the future of cars will look like.  Personally, I think ‘Lil Fox and Mini Fox will never own cars.  Rather they’ll subscribe to a service similar to your cell phone: for $300 per month you get your 16-mile work commute (with up to 2 other commuters, 2 minute max wait time) plus 500 miles of other driving in a 4-person sedan (with up to 100 miles in a minivan or SUV).

That will fundamentally change things like car insurance, garages (both at home and parking structures), and a million other things.  And I bet it’s a lot sooner than we think.  Bear in mind, 5 years ago, everyone was saying driverless care are decades away; now GM says it’s a year.

In the meantime, we have to still get to work and pick up groceries and take the kids to baseball practice today.  How does all this impact what you want to be a sound financial decision if we have to get a new car today?

 

The verdict—lease your next car

While this pains me to say, I think the best financial move for your next car is to lease.  Who would have thought I would ever type those words?

If you buy, in 10 years or so you’ll be just getting ahead on your financial decision, but you’ll be sooooo behind the times plus be a bit of a hazard on the road.  Imagine hanging out with your friends as they take selfies and you pull out your Blackberry.

Going all in with stocks

buried-money

With the recent craziness in the stock market, I’ve chatted with friends about how much of their portfolio should be in stocks.  Actually the conversation goes more like:

THEM:  I am about 50% stocks, 50% bonds.  How does that sound?

ME:  50% stocks and you’re 41 years old, and you have a good job?!?!?!?  Are you crazy?  That’s way too conservative.

THEM:  But I don’t want to be too risky.

ME:  You have a lot of safe investments that you probably don’t even know about.  The investments you can invest in stocks you should so you can get the higher return over the long term.

THEM:  ??????

 

So here is what I am talking about–the hidden cash in your portfolio.

We know that you need to balance risk and return in our investments.  This is most clearly done when we choose our mix of stocks (more risky, higher average returns) and bonds (less risky, lower average returns).  As an investor gets older they want to shift their asset allocation towards less risky investments because their time horizon is shortening.  We all agree with this.  So where is this hidden pot of gold I’m talking about?

 

Let’s look at the example of Mr and Mrs Grizzly.  They are both 65 years old and entering retirement.  They worked hard over the years and socked away $1 million that will see them through their golden years.  They do some internet research and learn that a sensible asset allocation in retirement is 40% stocks and 60% bonds, so they invest $400k in stocks and $600k in bonds.  Knowing the long term average returns are 8% for stocks and 4% for bonds, they expect their $1 million nest egg to generate about $56,000 per year ($400k * 8% + $600k *4%) , knowing that some years it will be more and some years it will be less.   So far so good, right?

1 m

THEY ARE LEAVING MAYBE $20,000 PER YEAR ON THE TABLE.  That’s a ton of money.  How can this be?  They seem to be doing everything right.  The answer is they are being way too conservative with their asset allocation.  They shouldn’t be investing $600k in bonds and $400 in stocks; stocks should be a much higher percentage.

Waaaaiiiiiiiittttttttt!!!  But didn’t we agree that about 60% of their portfolio should be in less risky investments?  Yes, we did.  Are you confused yet?

 

Hidden cash

Here’s what I didn’t tell you.  Mr and Mrs Grizzly have other investments that act a lot like bonds that aren’t included in that $1 million.  Both Mr Grizzly and Mrs Grizzly are eligible for Social Security with their monthly payments being $2000 each.  If Mr Grizzly (age 65) went to a company like Fidelity and bought an annuity that paid him $2000 each month until he died (doesn’t that sound a lot like Social Security), that would cost about $450k.  So in a way, Mr Grizzly’s Social Security payments are acting like a $450k government bond (theoretically it would be worth more than $450k since the US government has a better credit rating than Fidelity).  And remember that Mrs Grizzly is getting similar payments, so as a couple they have about $900k worth of “bond-ish” investments.

Also, Mr and Mrs Grizzly own their home that they could probably sell for $300k.  They don’t plan on selling but if they ever needed to they could tap the equity in their home either by selling it or doing a reverse mortgage.  So in a way, their house is another savings account for $300k.

If you add that up, all the sudden the picture looks really different.  They have about $950k of Social Security benefits that have the safety of a government bond.  Plus they have that $300k equity in their house.  That’s $1.25 million right there.

 

Investing your portfolio

So now let’s bring this bad boy full circle.  Remember their $1 million nest egg they were looking to invest?  Look at that in the context of their Social Security and house.  Now their total “assets” are about $2.25 million.  If you believe that the Social Security and house kind of feel like a bond, just those by themselves account for 55% of their portfolio.  If on top of that if you invest 60% of their $1 million nest egg in bonds, they have over 80% of their money in bonds, and that seems way too high.

2 25 m a

On the other hand, let’s say they only put $100k of their nest egg into bonds and the rest into stocks, after you include their social security and home, they’d be at about 60% bonds and 40% stocks.  Isn’t that what they were aiming for the whole time?

2 25 m b

Wow.  It took a long time to get there, Stocky.  The punchline better be worth it.  Remember that with $600k in bonds and $400k in stocks, they had an expected return of about $56,000 per year.  However, if they have $100k in bonds and $900k in stocks, because stocks are more volatile but have a higher expected return, they can expect about $76,000 ($900k * 8% + $100k *4%).  THAT’S $20,000!!! 

But aren’t they taking on a lot more risk to get that extra $20k?  Remember, there’s no such thing as a free lunch.  For sure, but if you look at it in the context of their Social Security benefits and their home, they have a fair amount of cushion from “safe investments” to see them through any rough patches in the stock market.

 

I wrote this post to show that people really need to take account all the financial resources they have.  In the Grizzly’s case, it was their Social Security benefits and their home.  Others of you may be getting a pension (Medtronic is generous enough to offer the Fox family one) or a second home or a dozen other things like that.

When you take those cash flows into account, all the sudden it seems a lot more reasonable to invest the rest of your money a little more heavily in stocks which you know over the long haul will give you a better return.

Shopping for health insurance (part 3)

On Monday we talked about the fat, dumb, and happy path we took when we got our health insurance from our employer.  On Tuesday we talked about how insurance works and what are the shoals you have to navigate through.  Today, we’ll talk about how the Fox family is going to go forward.

 

 

What we have been spending on health insurance in the past

Let’s look at what we’re going to do and how that impacts us financially.

First, let’s remember what we’ve been paying when covered by traditional, employer-sponsored health insurance.  We directly pay about $1,100 per month, plus the company pays about $1,200 per month.  Remember that $1,200 is really your money.  Your employer doesn’t give that to you out of charity.  You earn that money and you are paid that in the form of subsidized health insurance.  Add those together and it’s about $2,300 per month which comes to about $28,000 annually.

Plus, you have to add all the copays and deductibles.  I track this stuff because I am a nut.  Going back to when Foxy and I got married in 2010, we typically spend about $1,200 each year on copays.  However, there were two years where it was closer to $4,000.  That’s when ‘Lil Fox had to be hospitalized for croup.  More on that scary episode in a second.

Our average premiums were about $28,000 each year, and our out-of-pocket is about $2,000 each year, knowing some years are higher than others.  That’s $30,000 each year that we were spending on health insurance, not that far off from what Obamacare was going to charge.  I had no idea I was spending so much.  I just barfed in my mouth.

 

What we’ll end up doing now

After extensive searching, we found a really good policy from United Healthcare that costs about $500 per month.  It gives us access to their negotiated rates which is the most important thing, and then it covers certain things up to a set amount.

For example, it covers a regular doctor visit up to $100, after which I am responsible for the excess charges.  As I said, figuring out negotiated rates are really hard, but I think on average a doctor visit with the negotiated rate is about $150.  So, I would pay the $50 not covered.

This stuff is really confusing, but looking at all the coverage I figure that I would pay a bit more under this plan than I would in copays under the traditional employer-sponsored plan (or Obamacare which looks a lot like a traditional employer-sponsored plan).  But you can pay for a lot of copays with an $1,800 per month difference in premiums.

With this coverage, we get #1 and #3 of what insurance coverage offers.  But we’re missing #2 which is that protection from some catastrophic medical event like a car accident or something.  For that we can get a supplemental policy that costs about $100 per month and it covers us for any expenses that exceed $15,000 in a three-month period.

That ensures that if tragedy strikes in the form of a car accident or a fire where one of us are stuck inside or . . . I don’t even like thinking about this.  You get my point.  If something really bad happens and one of us (or all of us) is in the hospital for a long time and the medical bills really rack up, we’ll max out at $15,000.

 

How we’ll probably end up ahead

Good news.  We get all our coverage—access to negotiated rates, typical coverage of basic stuff, and protection against catastrophic costs—for about $600 per month or $7,000 per year.  That compares pretty favorably to the $28,000 in monthly premiums from my employee-sponsored plan (or even the $1,100 per month or $13,000 per year that was my portion, but again make no mistake that I was paying for both portions).

There’s no questions that our out-of-pockets will be higher now than they were before.  Typically, we spend $2,000 per year on that stuff, so let’s say it doubles to $4,000 per year (about $350 per month).  That’s a lot of money, but we’re still ending up way ahead because although we spend an extra $2,000 on out-of-pockets we are spending about $21,000 less on premiums.  That’s a huge windfall.  $21,000 a year is enough on its own to fund a nice retirement (about $5 million over a 40-year investing lifetime!!!).

Of course, those numbers assume we’re pretty healthy and don’t consume a ton of medical care.  Let’s say Foxy and I each get our annual check-ups, the boys go twice a year, and there’s one ER visit and a couple urgent care visits thrown in for fun.

But what if catastrophe happens?  After all, that’s the whole point of insurance, right?  God forbid we have a repeat of 2013 when ‘Lil Fox was in the PICU for 4 days with a nasty case of croup.  At the time we were covered under my Medtronic insurance and the total cost was about $32,000 of which we had to pay out-of-pocket about $4,000.

Those are some big numbers.  But let’s say that we were on the hook for the whole $28,000 (instead of just the $4,000).  First, we’d be helped out by the catastrophic coverage, so we’d only pay $15,000.  Given that we’re saving about $22,000 annually on premiums we’d come out about even.  Bear in mind, we’ve had kids for seven years now (including in utero), and that one event was the biggest medical issue we’ve had.  If at it’s worst we break even and then all the other years we come out way ahead, that seems like a winning combination.

 

How we’ll change our behavior

Given that the plan we’ll get is pretty bare-bones, there’s a much closer link between the healthcare we actually use and what we pay out-of-pocket.  This provides a lot of transparency which is actually a good thing (basically what my friend Oguz said in a comment on Tuesday).  One of the big problems is that when things are “covered” by insurance and people don’t have to pay for it, they use a lot more.

For us, we’ll pay when ever we see a doctor or get a prescription.  That will make us more selective of when we actually go see a doctor.  If Mini Fox has a cough (which he actually does right now), we’ll probably wait an extra day or two before going to the doctor (which we are in fact doing right now).  Maybe that sounds like terrible parenting, but actually most experts agree that people are hypochondriacs, and waiting a bit gives your body the chance to heal.  We’d never put our family in harms way, but the body does have the ability to heal itself pretty miraculously.  We’ll take advantage of that.

Also, we’ll be more mindful of using the most expensive types of care.  The most obvious example is an emergency room versus an office visit or urgent care.  If you don’t pay the costs, it doesn’t matter and most people will do the quickest thing they can (ER).  However, if you’re paying for it, you’re a lot more likely to have the inner dialogue at 11:30pm when you’re kid is puking: “Do I really need to go to the ER or can I wait until morning and go to the urgent care?”

Those are the little things that can save the healthcare system a ton of money.  But we as consumers only think about it when we have skin in the game (again, to Oguz’s point).  Now that we’ll have a more bare-bones policy, we’ll be thinking about that, and it’s a good thing.

 

There are bargains to be had

Another major benefit of the bare-bones coverage is that with less things “covered” we’ll need to shop around more for our medical treatment.  We’re becoming more engaged in the process which is a good thing.  Also, this allows us to actually find some major bargains out there, and who says “no” to getting better quality while paying less?

There’s a fun little procedure a fox can get when he doesn’t want to have any more cubs.  Vasectomies are covered under most plans.  The total cost is very opaque (again Oguz’s point on transparency), but the typical out-of-pocket was about $200.

However, there are clinics that don’t accept insurance and are only cash pay.  I must say they seem A LOT nicer.  The receptionist answers the phone by the third ring, not after you’re on hold for 20 minutes (literally, I’ve had that experience).  The facilities are beautiful and totally modern.  They do the consult and the procedure all in one meeting which is awesome.  Everything is better.  All for the low cost of $750 which you pay with a credit card at the time of the procedure.  Bear in mind, the monthly premium for coverage that covers vasectomies is $2,300 per month and the premium for the plan that doesn’t cover vasectomies is $600.  Simple math to me.

This very similar example can extend to all sorts of stuff like Lasix.

Another example close to our heart is speech therapy.  That’s an optional piece of healthcare which is also fairly predictable, so it doesn’t fall under the traditional definition of “insurance”.

Under our employer plan (and Obamacare as well), we could sign up with an approved provider.  The list price was $200 per 45-minute session, and the negotiated price came down to $150.  Our copay was $50.

I ended up talking to a guy who used to give us speech therapy (so he’s licensed and the same high quality).  He left his company that was covered by insurance and went out on his own.  He and I came up with an awesome deal.

His previous company would charge insurance $150 of which I paid $50.  He actually got about $30 per session.  He and I agreed to cut the middleman out.  We bypass insurance, and I pay him directly $40 per session.  He comes to our house to do the speech therapy which is a ton more convenient, plus he does it for 60 minutes because he’s hustling and wants the business.  Everyone wins.

He makes more money, I pay less, and we get a better-quality product.  This only happens because I go outside the health insurance paradigm and used that awesome thing in capitalism called competition.

 

There you have it.  After 4,300 words in three parts, you now have a sense for how we are handling our health insurance.

Having to do it on our own, away from the protection of an employee-sponsored plan was a bit unnerving at first, but after I went through it all, I’m actually fairly optimistic.  I’m still going to get great healthcare (and the speech therapy and vasectomy examples show that maybe even better quality), all the while saving a ton of money.

Remember, that each month we’ll save about $1,700 in premiums.  Maybe we’ll pay an extra $200 per month in copays, but still that’s $1,500 to the good each month.  That is HUGE, coming to about $5 million over a typical healthcare consumer’s investing lifetime.

 

Shopping for health insurance (part 2)

Yesterday I started the story of how the Fox family had to shop for health insurance in the open market.  Mostly, I talked about how we had always had employee-sponsored health insurance; we were shocked by how much Obamacare cost, but it turns out we were always paying that much, and we just didn’t know it (which is part of the problem).

Today we’ll talk about how health insurance has gotten so screwed up.  Thursday we’ll finish up with how the Fox family is going to beat the system and save enough to completely fund our retirement (at about $5 million) along the way.

 

The definition of “insurance”

Part of the problem is the word “insurance” has been bastardized.  Anywhere you go except for healthcare, the concept of insurance means you pay a small amount of money and if an unpredictable catastrophe occurs, those expenses are covered.  Think auto insurance or homeowner’s insurance.

For a lot of political reasons, “insurance” has taken on a very different meaning when applied to healthcare.  Health insurance isn’t meant to cover only unforeseen expenses and very large expenses.  It has come to mean to many people “paying for all medical expenses”, including those that are optional (Viagra, psychological counseling, baby head helmets) and very predictable (birth control, contact lenses, dialysis).

Always remember that Las Vegas wasn’t built on winners and neither are insurance companies.  Insurance companies have to make money or they go out of business.  To cover all those expenses, they need to raise premiums or increase the patient’s share of the expenses through deductibles or out-of-pockets.

That’s coming out of your pocket.  So when your insurance plan offers chiropractic visits or smoking cessation or a million other things that you’re pretty confident that you won’t ever use, you’re still paying for that.

The point is that “health insurance” has become more of a “healthcare buffet”.  For a monthly cost you get (or at least can get) a bunch of stuff, some of which you’ll use and much of it you won’t.  This has predictably lead to health insurance costs spiraling out of control (Obamacare costs rose about 10% in 2017).  More on this in a minute.

 

What health insurance really provides

When you buy health insurance, what are you actually getting?  This seems like an easy question, but it actually breaks down into three major components (two of which you probably know right away, but one that’s a bit more subtle):

  1. Payment of medical expenses: This seems obvious.  When you have health insurance, you can go to the doctor and your health insurance pays some or all of those costs.  This isn’t that big of a deal because for those predictable healthcare expenditures, you’re really paying these costs anyway through your premiums.
  2. Protection from major expenditures: In the more traditional sense of insurance, if you have some catastrophic medical event (in a major car accident, get diagnosed with cancer, etc.) your health insurance will cover the enormous expenses that would otherwise bankrupt most people.
  3. Negotiated rates: This is the subtle one.  In addition to #1 and #2, when you have health insurance, you get access to the rates they negotiate with healthcare providers.

So when you “buy” health insurance, either one on your own like the Fox family is getting ready to do, or as part of your employee benefit package (and make no mistake, you’re paying for all of that), you are getting those three things.

 

Negotiated rates are a big deal

#3 is such a big deal that it deserves its own section.

When you go to a hospital, there is a list price that someone off the street without insurance would be charged.  Then there is the negotiated rate that insurance companies work out with the hospital which is much, much lower.

Negotiated rates are a closely guarded secret, so it’s hard to figure out exactly how large the negotiated rate discount is, but if you know where to look, you can find it.  It tends to be about 1.5 to 3x.  For every $3 a person without insurance in charged for something, an insurance company will negotiate that rate down to $1.  That’s a HUGE benefit!!!

This is one of those things that really pisses me off.  When I am elected to Congress, I am going to work hard to remedy this.

The argument goes that insurance companies use their volume to negotiate better prices, but do they really?  How many of those patients go to St Mary’s Hospital instead of Sinai Medical Center because of their insurance?  My experience is that most insurers allow patients to go most places.

Second, when you use insurance it takes a long period of time for the insurance claim to be processed and paid, the deductible to be calculated and that invoice to be sent out and paid.  Contrast that to a cash patient who could pay with a credit card that day (or a check to avoid credit card fees), and you could actually argue that cash patients should pay less than insurance patients, not three times more.

Also, where else would it be acceptable to charge a customer 3x compared to another.  If you did that based on race (charge black people more than white) or gender (charge women more than men) or wealth (charge poor people more than rich people) or ethnicity (charge Asians more than Jews) people would throw a total fit, and it would totally be justified.

Scaling it down a notch, charging people 3x more because they are ready to pay you in US legal tender really isn’t all that different.  People are throwing a fit about unaffordable healthcare in America, but I really don’t hear a lot about this.  This is where you could make some real progress and give real relief to those who aren’t insured.

I’m not saying that hospitals and other healthcare providers should take less.  I’m just saying they should charge everyone the same price, and it should be transparent.

Bottom line, in the country we live in today, probably the biggest benefit of health insurance is having access to those negotiated rates.

 

Everything is available at the buffet

Another major factor that has made health insurance more complicated and a lot more expensive is the breadth of coverage that is now fairly typical with most plans like Obamacare and employee-sponsored plans.

Obamacare has a special name these “extra” things—minimum essential coverage.  They are things like: pregnancy, birth control, drug and alcohol abuse treatment, mental therapy to name a few.  Those are required to be included in any Obamacare plan.  Many employee-sponsored plans (like the one I had at Medtronic) had a lot more stuff too like: chiropractor visits, fitness counselors, etc.  Plus, of course, Medtronic had amazingly good coverage for diabetes patients.

Look at that list.  In our situation, we wouldn’t use any of those.  We aren’t planning on having any more children and other steps have been taken to assure ongoing birth control isn’t needed ?.  We don’t abuse drugs, don’t use chiropractors, don’t have diabetes, and don’t have high cholesterol.

However, when plans offer that coverage for things that are fairly predictable (not the classic definition of “insurance”) it has to be paid for somehow, and that somehow is with higher premiums.  Whether we used it or not we pay those higher costs, and that’s one of the reasons health insurance is so expensive.  It offers and charges you for so much that you won’t end up using.  I guess that’s how we get to a crazy high cost like $2,300 per month as a premium.

For us (and a lot of people out there), we’re pretty healthy and really don’t take advantage of some of those gray areas of healthcare like chiropractors.  We just want something simple that covers our doctor’s visits and catastrophic events.

As medicine gets more and more socialized (and you move away from the ability to choose a bare-bones plan—what we’ll be doing), you open yourself up to an ugly word in healthcare—Lobbyists.  There are a lot of companies making incredible technology that helps people (I speak first hand on this, having worked for Medtronic for almost 20 years).  It’s understandable that they are going to do everything they can, legally and otherwise, to get their products covered on insurance formularies.  They aren’t bad people per se; they are just advocating for the products they believe in (and the products which also pay their bills).

Of course, nationalized medicine offers the biggest opportunity for this.  Whether it’s Pfizer trying to explain how Viagra must absolutely be offered as a part of health insurance, or Medtronic and continuous glucose monitoring, or Bayer and birth control, or the American Association of Chiropractors, or the American Institute of Homeopathy.  On and on and on.

There’s so much that could be offered as a part of insurance, the vast majority of which a very, very small portion of the population actually uses.  Simply put, we can’t afford it all.  In that case, it becomes a game of lobbyists who can best convince bureaucrats to support what they want.  That’s not a good situation.

That leads to out-of-control costs, which we’re already seeing today–$2,300 per month.  But if you have choices in the market, you can pick the plans that only give you what you want, and you can save a ton of money (about $5 million over your lifetime).  That’s what we’ll talk about tomorrow.

 

Shopping for health insurance (part 1)

I’m trying to build my audience, so if you like this post, please share it on social media using the buttons right above.

The Fox family had to shop for health insurance on the open market recently.  It was quite an eye-opening experience.  Given what a sensitive issue health insurance has become, I think our experience definitely offers insights into how screwed up the healthcare landscape is, but also how reasonable health insurance is.  This “reasonable” -ness actually has the potential to be a huge gold mine that it alone could fund your entire retirement.

Here is our story—this is an epic post so I’ll be cutting it into two (or dare I say three) sections.  Here’s part 1.

Up to this point

Until recently, I lived my entire adult life being covered by corporate health insurance (and I think that’s part of the problem—more on this in a second).  At age 21 I started with Medtronic and was covered with their employee health plan.  All the way through 2015, since I always had a corporate job, I was always covered by my employer’s health insurance.  Once the cubs came around, they were covered by my employer’s plan as well.

After I left Medtronic and retired, our family was covered on Foxy Lady’s employer plan.  So really nothing changed except we went from one corporate plan to a different one.

In 2017 when Foxy was laid off from her job we had to get a little creative.  I was doing consulting, and I cut a deal with one client—take some of what I was charging them, and make me an employee and give me health insurance.  That worked for a year, so again we were covered under a corporate plan.

Then in December we got a call from that client that they were changing their benefits and I couldn’t get health insurance from them any longer.  All good things must come to an end.  So we had to look for health insurance like one of the millions of families who don’t get it through their employer.

 

Obamacare is no bueno

Fortunately, when we got the call from my consulting client saying our health insurance was ending, it was in early December.  The deadline to enroll in Obamacare was December 15.

I admit, the idea of finding health insurance on my own was a bit daunting.  It was something I had never done before, and given all the media coverage it gets about how awful it was, I was a bit intimidated.

I didn’t really know where to start the search.  Of course, I knew about Obamacare (in this day and age, how could you not?), so that’s where I started.  After I entered in all our information in the online form, I saw we could get a policy with a premium of about $2,300 per month.  Depending on our income, we could get a subsidy that would push that down to about $500 per month.  A subsidy could be in play given our income is very “feast or famine”, but realistically we were going to pay full price.

Our coverage would cost about $2,300 per month.  That’s a bitter pill, but if that’s what it is, that’s what it is.  However, the bad news didn’t stop there.  Obamacare had really high deductibles and out-of-pocket.  The maximum out-of-pocket for a family was about $15,000 for the family.

It’s complex and there are a ton of nuisances, but basically if the disaster situation struck and we had a ton of medical bills, we would be on the hook for all our monthly premiums (about $28k for the year) plus the out-of-pocket (about $15k).  After that first $43k we’d be good (that’s meant to be very sarcastic).

After going through all this Foxy Lady and I looked at each other with defeated countenances.  No wonder why most families can’t afford health insurance.  We were staring down the barrel of a $45k shotgun.  We’re pretty wealthy thanks to good jobs and smart investing, but even for us this would take a painful chunk of our nest egg.  Best case we’d pay $28k in premiums and worst case we’d pay $45k.

Who really knows what health insurance actually costs?

You can imagine after seeing those numbers for Obamacare, we weren’t in a good place.  But how was it possible that it was that bad?

I’d lived my whole life with health insurance, including my whole adult life where I was paying for it myself.  It was never this bad . . . or was it?

Actually, I’m not sure I ever really knew what I was paying for health insurance, and sadly I think this is fairly common.  When I was with Medtronic, I got paid every two weeks.  As with most of us, there were a ton of deductions in my paycheck that whittled down what actually went into my checking account compared to what Medtronic was shelling out.  We all know the culprits: taxes, 401k, flex spending, and of course health insurance.

Psychologically, I think when something is automatically deducted from your paycheck, you don’t really think about it or appreciate how much it costs (and that’s a major problem).  Every two weeks I was paying about $500 for our family’s health insurance.  That comes to about $1100 per month, and that actually seems like a lot of money . . .

. . . But it didn’t stop there.  Typically, what gets deducted from our paychecks only covers a fraction of the real health insurance cost.  As an employee benefit, many companies pay the other part.  That makes it really hard to figure out how much your health insurance costs.

Every year Medtronic would send out a sheet to each employee outlining all the wonderful things they did for us, and they included the cost they paid for my health insurance.  As it turned out, they paid about 50% of the total cost.  All in, the monthly cost for our health insurance was about $2,300, surprisingly close to the Obamacare costs.

How many people realize what they’re paying for health insurance?  Probably not many.  How many people realize what their employer is paying?  Probably even less.

At the end of the day, we live in a country where most people are paying for health insurance one way or another, and almost no one knows how much it costs.  That’s a real problem, a real problem for an entire society that is trying to figure out how to pay for health care.

Wow!!!  We’re already at over 1,000 words and we’ve barely scratched the surface.  We’re totally doing this in three parts.  Tune in tomorrow to see my take on how health insurance works, and then Thursday to see what we did and how we’ll actually save a ton of money (about $5 million over our lifetime) by doing health insurance in the open market.

Inflation Killers—Credit Card Rebates

NOTE: If after reading this, you would like to apply for one of the credit cards that the Fox family uses to max out credit card rebates, we can send you a link and that lines our pockets with a bit of money at no additional cost to you.  Let me know if you’d like to do that.

We’ve talked about how your cell phones are a great killer of inflation, along with other things store brand groceries and Craig’s List and the sharing economy.  But there’s another product that is totally killing inflation that makes those seem like small potatoes—your credit card and the rebates you can now get.

Back in the day credit cards allowed a convenient way to purchase products without having to carry around a lot of cash.  Eventually competition among credit card companies began to heat up, and by the late 1990s they started offering rebates to card holders on their purchases.

Let’s take a quick look at how credit card companies make money:

  1. They charge interest and fees to those who carry a balance. This is where there is a ton of money to be made.  For the purposes of this post, we’ll ignore this other than saying the Fox family never carries a credit card balance.
  2. They take a cut of all purchases. When you buy something for $10 at the store with your credit card, you end up paying $10.00 for it, but the store only gets about $9.41.  That’s because the credit card processing company charges 2.9% of the purchase plus $0.30 on each transaction.  Most people don’t think about this revenue stream, but it definitely adds up.

 

So obviously to maximize revenue from #2, credit card companies want as many people buying as much stuff as possible on their credit cards.  That leads to competition from the likes of Chase and Capital One and a ton of others, and that competition has taken the form of credit card rebates that over the last 20 years have gotten more and more generous.  Credit card companies are enticing you into using their products by giving you a cut of #2.

My first credit card was a Visa associated with Exxon.  It offered a rebate that could be redeemed for free gas.  It was something like 0.5% of my purchases, but it was better than nothing.  I was already buying gas so once a month I would get something like $12 off a fill-up.  Over the course of a year that added up to maybe $150, not a ton of money but free money nonetheless.  Given that I wasn’t getting that before, that was definitely “deflation” on my gas purchases—SCORE.  Compared to what is offered today, that was just a pittance.

 

Credit card arms race

Fast forward to 2018 and things have definitely become higher stakes.  We are bombarded with commercials where Discover gives you a rebate and then matches it at the end of the year, Capital One gives you a 1.5% rebate on all your purchases, and Chase gives 2 airline miles for every dollar you spend.

Credit cards are even offering one-time bonuses of hundreds of dollars if you sign up and spend a few thousand dollars in the first few months.

It’s easy to get overwhelmed by all the marketing and confused by all the intricacies of the rebate programs.  But there’s gold in them hills.

If you take a few minutes (and that’s really all it is) to understand the different programs and figure out which one is the best for you, it can be thousands of dollars each year in your pocket.  THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS.

 

The impact is huge

I’ve mentioned this a few times, but the Fox family plays the credit card roulette game and last year it amounted to about $4,000 in our pockets.  Given we spend about $120,000 a year on expenses, that’s almost 4% of our expenses each year.

You’re probably not surprised that I look at the impact with a spreadsheet, and when you do the numbers it has an enormous impact.  Let’s genericize it and look at my cousin Savvy Fox.  He’s a 22-year-old who graduated from college making $50,000 per year and spending about $40,000 per year of which 80% is stuff on his credit card.  His only major expense that he doesn’t put on his credit card is his rent (and eventually his mortgage); but for everything else he uses his credit card.  Of course, he pays his credit card off each month to avoid usurious interest expenses.

Over the course of his life his income and expenses will grow 3% each year until he’s spending $120,000 per year (like us) when it flattens out.

At age 22 Savvy spends a total of $40,000 of which $32,000 (80% of the total) he uses credit cards for.  Because he’s savvy with his credit cards, he gets about a 4% rebate on those purchases which is $1,280 for the year.  This is found money so Savvy invests it in and index fund and gets about 8% each year.  If he follows this plan for his entire working life (until age 65), when he retires this little exercise will give him a nice little treasure chest of about $660,000.

$660k for doing nothing more than maximizing his credit card rebates!!!  Go ahead and read that again.  In a world where the average net worth of a person is $80k, this little gambit by itself gives you 8x that.  BOOM!!!

To further illustrate the point, $660k is when Savvy is really savvy with credit cards and gets the 4% rebate.  If he wasn’t savvy and just got a 1% rebate, at age 65 he’d have $165k.  That’s really, really good; twice the net worth of the average American, but still HALF A MILLION less than what he could have.

That should show you the stakes.  Now let’s talk about how you get there.

 

Specifically what the Fox family does

It’s important to find a credit card with the highest rebate.  Right now the ranges from about 1.5% to 2.0%.  But the key is the sign-up bonus.  You can fairly easily get a credit card with a sign-up bonus of $200 and higher, and you get that if you spend something like $1,500 in the first few months.

Our family typically plays this game 2-3 times per year, for both Foxy and me.  So we sign up for a new credit card every few months.  Our normal spending easily gets us to that threshold for the bonus.  So take 3 new credit cards per year times 2 people, and you get a total of 6 new credit cards per year, each of which has a $200 rebate.  Just the rebate gets us at least $1,200.  Add to that 1.5% rebate on all our purchases that we can use a credit card for, let’s say $6,000 per month, and you have another $1,080.  That’s over $2,000 right there of found money.  That gets us to about 3.2%, but we do better.

As generous as personal credit card rebate programs are, business credit card rebate programs are better.  Since Foxy Lady and I hung up our own consulting shingles, we had to set up a business.  Because we have a business we can get business credit cards!!!

At Capital One a typical personal credit card has a rebate of $150 and a 1.5% cash back.  Not bad.  Their business credit card has a rebate of $500 and a 2% cash back.  Much better.  At Chase, they have a business credit card with a $700 rebate (after you account for the annual fee).  Now we’re talking.

You can easily imagine that if Foxy Lady gets two Capital One credit cards per year and two Chase cards, and I do the same, the rebate dollars add up.  I’ll do the math for you—it’s $4,800.  Add to that the cash back which is around 2%, and that’s another $1,440.  We’re getting about $6,200 EVERY YEAR for doing nothing more than using credit cards.  That’s a ton of money that is just sitting out there for the taking.

 

Bringing this full circle, there is a ton of money out there for people who put maybe two hours per year into getting it by playing the credit card game.  That money hasn’t always been there, so that by definition is DEFLATION.  Credit cards can be a huge inflation killer.

If you are interested in signing up for one of the cards we use, if we send you a link we get a bit of a bonus from Chase or Capital One.  If you want to do that, just shoot me an email.

Bitcoin—Top 5 WTF

A few of you have written in asking what I think of Bitcoin and its crazy ride.  Here are my Top 5 observations on Bitcoin.

 

5. Unprecedented wild ride

What has happened with Bitcoin in 2017 is really unprecedented.  Its price has risen about 17x which obviously is a lot.  To me, the more astounding point is that it has risen that high given it has a market cap of $300 billion (that is the total value if you added up all the bitcoins in the world).

If you think of bitcoin as a stock, that combination is pretty incredible.  A lot of stocks have had crazy good years where they increased 17x.  However, most of those are off a really low base: so maybe a $50 million company grew to a $1 billion company.  Obviously, that is much easier to do off a smaller base.

However, with Bitcoin, continuing with that analogy, it grew from a $15 billion company (that’s about in the top 2000 globally) so that isn’t exactly small.  Then it vaulted to $300 billion which would put it at about top 10.  Think about that for a minute.  Crazy.

 

4. I still don’t get it

I feel like some old man who doesn’t get the world around him.  Damn kids won’t get off my lawn.

I couldn’t tell you with any specificity what Bitcoin is (there are buzzwords like “blockchain” but I don’t know what that means either).  I certainly couldn’t tell you how I could “buy” them or “mine” them.  I don’t know a single vendor who would accept Bitcoins, and if they did I wouldn’t know how you do that transaction.

And I think I tend to be fairly knowledgeable about these things.  I can pay for stuff using my watch which proves I’m at the forefront of technology, but Bitcoin is just beyond me.  I think that applies to most people—the story of Bitcoin is exciting but the details are pretty fuzzy.

 

3. Not surprising run-up

Given the incredible run-up, I am not surprised of it’s continued push higher in the past couple weeks, thanks to it’s listing on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange earlier in the month.

Being listed (or having your futures listed) on a very legitimate financial exchange obviously lends some credibility to something that up to this point had very little of it in respected financial circles.  Also, it somewhat addresses #4.  You can buy Bitcoin futures on the CME and I think many more people know how to do that than knew how to buy Bitcoins on their own two weeks before.

I still think Bitcoin is built on quicksand and will eventually collapse (more on this in a second), but in the short term it’s not surprising that it’s value has gotten a huge bump as it has been listed.

 

2. Ticking timebomb

There are a lot of people extremely bearish on Bitcoins, and many can give you a ton of reasons why it’s just an eyelash away from collapse.  I predict that eventually a central bank will crush it like an elephant finally getting annoyed by a gnat.

What would provoke such action by the US Treasury?  A terrorist attack.  It seems likely that given Bitcoins anonymity features, it will be used to fund some type of terrorist attack that will kill innocent Americans.  When that happens you can easily imagine the headlines, and then easily imagine the government’s response.

Bear in mind the whole premise of Bitcoin is that governments aren’t responsible stewards of their fiat currencies, so society needed some type of currency that the government can’t screw up.  That’s a bit of a “Screw-you” to Washington, so I think if there’s any connection between Bitcoin and a terrorist attack, the government will come down HARD.

 

1. Go left when everyone else says “go right”

There’s a famous saying in investing that saying when everyone believes one thing, the opposite tends to happen.  Right now, EVERYONE is saying that Bitcoin is a bubble and its value will crater.  People have been saying that when it was at $1000 and then the chatter exploded when it crossed the $10,000 threshold.  Now it’s at about $18,000.

Seriously, can you think of one serious, respected analyst who is bullish on Bitcoin?  I can’t.  Can you think of highly-regarded financial people who said Bitcoin is a crazy bubble that will crash HARD.  I can think of about a thousand.

Given that, it makes me think that Bitcoin might still have some upside.

 

Who knows with all of this?  I know I certainly don’t.  Personally, we don’t invest our money in Bitcoin, mostly because of #4 and a bit because of #2.  That said, I am enjoying the crazy ride that makes for fun reading in The Wall Street Journal.

 

Lending Club—No Bueno

About two years ago we broadened our investment portfolio with this new-fangled things called peer-to-peer lending with Lending Club.  This has turned out to be a pretty major disappointment for us, and we are in the process of exiting the investment (which isn’t a quick process—more on this in a second).

Basically, the idea of peer-to-peer lending is like match.com for lenders and borrowers.  People who want to invest/lend money meet people who want to borrow money.  Borrows can get money they need at much lower rates and much less hassle than if they got a loan from a bank.  Lenders can earn interest at a much higher rate than they would get from a bank.  Banks are cut out of the process and everyone wins, right?

 

How it works

There are people looking to borrow money for debt consolidation/payoff credit cards (that’s about 80% of the loans), help their small business, pay for home renovations, etc.  Let’s say a given loan is for $10,000.  A bunch of lenders like us each kick in $50 or so, so you’ll be in this loan with hundreds of other people.  The person gets the money and then pays off the loan over 3-5 years.

Lending Club vets each loan and each applicant, and assigns a credit score.  That credit score determines the interest rate which can range from 5-20%.

As a lender you can go through all the thousands of loan application and pick which ones you want to lend to.  That’s fun at first, but quickly becomes a hassle, so you can just put it on auto-pilot and Lending Club will pick the loans for you.  That’s what we did.

 

What happened to us

In mid-2015 we opened our account, starting with $3000.  Of course, I watched the process like a hawk, from the loans I picked to when they started paying back.  At first it went great (isn’t that line in pretty much every movie, before everything goes to hell?).  We were getting paid back by all our loans, and our return was over 12%, which of course is amazing.  That’s free money.

We put more money in over the next couple months, and then when we sold our California house we put a big chunk ($60,000) in.  By that time, our account was worth about $100,000.  Through mid-2016 things were going well.  Our returns had inched down to about 10% (still spectacular), and I was congratulating myself on being a financial genius.

Towards the end of 2016 I started to see some of my loans default.  Of course, this is to be expected.  Some of the loans will go bad but those should be offset by the higher interest rate, and everything works out.  Still, it was a disturbing trend.

After a few months, the bad loans kept coming and my return steadily dropped, until it settled at 2.5% which is where it’s at today.  That’s crazy!!!  Obviously, there’s a huge difference between a 10% investment and a 2.5% one.

In early 2017 I decided to pull the plug, and stopped reinvesting my money.  Now, as the small loans (we have about 3000 out there) pay off, we take that money and put it back in our Vanguard account.  Unfortunately, this isn’t a fast process so it will take us about 5 years to unwind everything.  Oh well.

 

Why it works (or doesn’t)

On paper it sounds like one of those awesome ideas where the power of the internet changes an old business model for the better, and I think there’s a lot of truth in that.  It brings borrowers and lenders together and cuts out the middlemen, and lowers the borrowing costs substantially.

The problem lies in their ability to ensure payments are made.  Fundamentally, what is stopping borrowers from getting the money and then just going away and not paying?  It may not happen a lot, but it doesn’t take a lot of these to really kill your return.

I have a bit of insight here because I was a large enough account that I would get a call about once per quarter from them “seeing how I was doing”.  You can imagine the tone of these calls changed as my return dropped.

These loans are unsecured, so the only thing that makes borrows pay back is morality (I never want to count on that when it comes to money), the threat of negative marks on their credit rating, and the general badgering from Lending Club as it tries to collect.  With traditional bank loans that are collateralized, the threat of repossessing something seems a lot stronger.

Not difficult to predict, there was a large portion of the borrowers who would take the money and then not pay it back.  Some might be thieves who borrowed the money in a scam and never intended on paying back.  Others certainly intended on doing it but things didn’t work out.  Given the economy has been super strong the past couple years, this is especially troubling because it should be as good as it gets right now.

When someone stops paying Lending Club goes after them with phone calls, but those don’t seem really effective.  Seriously, what are they going to do?  Some delinquent borrows do starting paying back but most either never answer the phone, or they do and say/demand that Lending Club quit bothering them (there are actually notes lenders can see on all this activity).

I personally think that in our litigious environment today, lenders don’t have that much leverage.  Also, to avoid claims of bias or discrimination, it’s probably not easy to turn down borrower applications.  That leads to a perfect storm of crap that I think I got caught up in.

 

What is the lesson?

Investing is an interesting psychological experiment.  The simple approach of buy-and-hold broad index mutual funds is almost certainly the best, yet it’s the most boring.  When you’re doing that and things are going well, there’s that itch to see “what else you can do” and “what you can do better”.

That’s what happened to me, and most of the time that’s death.  That’s what happened with us and our commodities investment, which has been a major loser.  That was also the case with Lending Club, and we’ve had disappointing results (especially since stocks are up about 15% annually in the time we’ve invested in it).

So the lesson here is that it’s probably always better to stick with the boring but tried-and-true approach.  History is on your side here.  We have over 100 years of data on how stocks behave, in good times and bad.  Peer-to-peer lending is fairly new so you don’t really know how it will play out.  Maybe you’ll miss out on something that’s new but amazing (see: Bitcoin), but that leads to an interesting second point.

Many leaders—NFL head coaches, CEOs, politicians—say that success finding all the great things, but more avoiding the bad things.  Stocks are similar.  It’s a game rigged in your favor, but there are pitfalls along the way that are so tempting.  That’s where I think I tripped up.  Lending Club and commodities were sexy investments at the time, and it scratched that itch for me to be “doing something.”  And it hurt me.

Of course, that doesn’t mean we never innovate.  Peer-to-peer lending may turn into something big; digital currencies might turn into something big.  They might be important parts of a financial portfolio, but I think now is way too early a time to be putting my money down on that bet.  I know I’ll miss some big wins, but hopefully I’ll also avoid big losses and come out ahead.

Should you use an investment adviser?

I started writing this blog because I wanted to share my own experiences with investing, including how to navigate the complex world of investing on your own.  I am a firm believer in DIY financial management.  That is what worked for me, and I believe all people can get really great results doing it on their own.  That said, many readers ask about using a broker or investment adviser or financial planner.  Here’s my take.

Quick disclosure: I am an investment adviser.  I passed my Series 65 and work with a small number of friends, helping them with their finances.

 

Are financial professionals worth it?

As with any purchase you make, you need to evaluate a investment adviser on the basis of how much she costs, and how much value you get in return.  On the surface I would say “no, it probably isn’t worth it,” however there are definitely some factors which may reverse that decision.

First, let’s look at how much investment advisers cost.  The rates range widely.  Plus there isn’t a lot of transparency in the marketplace so it’s not always easy to know what the going rate is.  My experience says that 1-2% is typical.  This can come in many forms—typically brokers get paid fees from the mutual funds they suggest for you or from the transaction costs for trades.  Advisers tend to charge a percentage of your portfolio.  We know that 1% coupons are really valuable, so those fees are a lot.  Over an investing career they can add up to hundreds of thousands of dollars.  That’s a pretty big deal.

Of course, if you’re getting a lot of value from your investment adviser, maybe it’s worth it.  One of the main missions of this blog is to show you how you can invest successfully on your own, and I think most people can do that without having to hire a professional.  Sure you have to make decisions on asset allocation, which accounts to use, what investments to make; but those aren’t really all that complex.  Also, thanks to the efficient market lessons from A Random Walk Down Wall Street we know that you’re as good a stock picker as anyone.

So my general feeling is that investment professionals aren’t worth the money; a motivated investor can do just as well on their own and pocket the fees.  Wait, what???  You said “motivated”.  As it turns out, a lot of people, despite their best intentions, aren’t able to put their financial plan in motion.  If you’re one of those people, and if an investment adviser can help motivate you to do the right things, then I do think they are more than worth it.

In this way, investment advisers are a lot like personal trainers.  Most of us know that exercise is good for us, and most of us know how to run on the treadmill and lift weights properly (or you can find out by watching a 3-minute video on Youtube).  But if a trainer can motivate you to actually hit the treadmill and the weights, they’re definitely worth the money, right?  How much is your physical health worth to you?  Same thing with finances.  If you know what you should be doing, but for one of a million reasons you never end up actually doing it, maybe you should get an investment adviser to help you out.

Nearly every post I’ve done shows that there is a ton of value out there if you invest properly, taking into account things like time horizon, taxes, etc.  But if you don’t do anything, you’re losing ALL that value.  In fact, loyal reader Jessamyn noted that studies show that investment advisors do increase returns about 3%.  That’s a ton, especially because we know how much a 1% coupon is worth.  Are they magic?  Can they predict the future?  No.  The data shows that investment advisors help people do what they are supposed to–keep track with their plan, invest regularly, don’t panic when the market goes crazy, etc.

If an investment adviser helps you in ways you won’t or can’t, then you’ll probably end up ahead of the game, even after you take his fees into account.

 

How would you pick a financial professional?

So let’s say you’ve decided that an investment adviser makes sense for you.  How do you pick a good one?  This is one of the biggest challenges, and in my opinion one of the reasons a lot of people don’t get investment advisers: They don’t know a good one they can trust.  The problem is there are a ton of them and the quality varies greatly.  Sadly, there are a lot of unskilled people in the industry who don’t know what they’re doing.  Even worse, there are some real shysters who might take your money, either overtly steal it or use other schemes to siphon away your money and put it in their pockets.  It’s a legitimate concern.

First, you need to find someone you can trust.  Ideally, this would come from a personal reference.  Today you also have things like yelp.com or Angie’s List that gives ratings.  Additionally, there are government agencies like FINRA.org that track these people so you can look them up to see how long they have been around and any complaints that have been files against them, etc.  These are okay, but for my money, nothing beats a personal reference from someone you trust.  Of course, it’s not always easy to have those conversations with friends: “So Mary, who is helping you with your money, and can I talk to them?”

Second, you need to find someone who is good.  Of course, knowing this isn’t always easy.  Using that same personal trainer analogy, you probably wouldn’t hire an obese trainer.  You’d want someone who is ripped, someone who has shown they have been successful at physical fitness themselves (like my totally buff friends Christel and Tobias).

Tobias
If you have a personal trainer, he should be ripped like Tobias here. Similarly, if you have an investment adviser, that person should be somewhat wealthy.

 

Similarly, you want a rich investment adviser.  You want someone who has been successful creating wealth for themselves.  But this is where the challenge comes in: if the investment adviser is wealthy then why is he working with you?  Seriously.  You have a lot of young kids who are doing this (let’s say less than 30).  I’m sure there are some good ones, but I’m not trusting my family’s financial wellbeing to someone without a lot of experience.  You also have a lot of people who just aren’t that good.  If someone has been an investment adviser for 10 or 20 years and they aren’t a multi-millionaire, how good can they really be?  I’m not trying to be mean, but shouldn’t that be more than enough time to accumulate some serious wealth?

 

Questions to ask:

If you do decide to go with a investment adviser, make sure you ask a lot, A LOT, of questions.  Beyond your doctor or minister/rabbi, this person will probably have the biggest impact on your wellbeing.  Take the time to make sure you find a good one.

How long have you been doing this?  This is an area where experience definitely matters.  In particular, you want her to have lived through a few bear markets.  At a minimum she should have been doing advising people since 2008 and even better if she’s been doing it since 2001.

What did you do during 2001 and 2008?  Investing is a lot easier when things are going well.  You prove your mettle during the tough times.  Figure out how he handled himself when everyone thought the world was coming to an end.

What are you paid?  This should be answered in excruciating detail.  Does he get paid by you (how is the amount determined, when is it paid), by others like mutual fund companies (how much, how do you make sure you serve my interests ahead of theirs)?

What is your personal financial situation?  No point sugar-coating it.  Find what his financial situation is like.  As mentioned above, if he isn’t pretty well off, how good is he really?  Also, the relationship you have with him needs to be based on trust because you’re going to be sharing everything with him.  If he isn’t willing to reciprocate in some way, that might tell you something.

How will you ensure you serve my best interests?  This is a biggie.  Ideally you want her to have a fiduciary relationship which is a legal standard where she serves your interests ahead of anyone else’s, including her own.  No matter how this turns out, you’re going to need to trust this person, but you should get a sense of how she will ensure that you are #1.

What is your investing strategy?  Obviously, there are a lot of nuisances to this, especially as he customizes it to your specific situation.  But he should definitely have an approach and a philosophy that he can articulate clearly and understandably.

What type of power will you have over my money?  Will she be able to make trades and move money between accounts with your express permission, on her own, or not at all?  This is a tricky one because maybe you want to offload these activities completely, so her having a ton of control may be okay.  No matter, you should definitely understand this completely.

How will you take into account other assets that you won’t manage?  Most situations will have him managing an account like your IRA or brokerage account but not others like your 401k, mortgage, pension, etc.  Most times, he’s only paid on the accounts he manages, but to do his job well he’ll need to take into consideration those other accounts as well.

 

Those are what I came up with off the top of my head.  At the end of the day, if you do go with an investment adviser make sure you find someone who has demonstrated they have the skills to build your wealth.  Just as importantly, make sure you find someone who you can trust completely.

My, oh my, how money has changed

We just got back from a trip to Disney with Lil’ Fox and Mini Fox.  As an aside, Disney World is a pretty amazing place and I highly recommend it to anyone.

While we were on the trip, I was thinking about similar trips my dad took with me and trips his parents took with him.  Because I always think about finance and money, it got me thinking how people paid for those trips—not necessarily how they saved for the trips (which is, of course, an important thing), but how they actually paid money at the point of sale.

Money seems like a real constant in our lives for decades and centuries and millennia.  However, it’s hard to think of something so central to our lives that has changed so drastically over such a short period of time.  In the past 100 years it has changed more than food or clothes or shelter.

 

Things used to be really risky and inconvenient

Back in the day, let’s say when my dad was a cub in the 1950s, everything was paid in for in cash.  There were innovations like Traveler’s Checks that substituted for cash, and I imagine many people thought of those the way today many people think of Bitcoin—kind of confusing and you aren’t really sure you “get it”.  It was just easier to use cash, something they understood and were used to.

Pretty much all of life revolved around having a ton of cash on hand to conduct your life- -groceries, gas, vacations, washing machines, everything.  That was hugely inconvenient and also incredibly risky.  I remember my grandfather taking about his money belt and false wallet, both tools meant to counteract enterprising pickpockets.

A couple decades later, let’s say the 1970s, charge cards hit the scene, first for department stores and gas stations.  Those could only be used at a specific store (your Sears card could only be used at Sears), so that wasn’t super convenient, but it was a major improvement.

In the 1980s, credit cards as we know them today became widespread.  Credit cards cousin, debit cards, which act in pretty much the same way but deduct straight from your checking account, were being used broadly by the 1990s.  Even though that’s where we are today, even credit cards have evolved in a major way.

 

The modern art of buying

Today the vast majority of retail transactions are done with credit cards, but the credit card you’re using is very different from the one my dad used in 1983.  Probably the biggest difference is that nearly every credit card offers a pretty substantial bonus of some sort.  It can be airline miles or hotel points or cash.  This can be a pretty big deal.

The Fox family plays credit card roulette (we get a new credit card every few months to take advantage of their initial purchase bonuses) and that nets us about $2,500 each year.  That just paid for our vacation.

All that said, we are very far from the cutting edge when it comes to this stuff.  In the mid-2000s this crazy thing called “Paypal” hit the scene.  When I was in grad school the cooler kids were using Paypal and paying each other for stuff.  I didn’t fully get it, and I admit that I don’t use it today.  Nonetheless peer-to-peer pay networks were here.

Fast-forward a few years and you got digital currencies like Bitcoin.  As much as I don’t fully understand Paypal, I understand Bitcoin even less.  What I do know is that Paypal was based on US dollars but offered a different and more convenient way to pay.  Now it seems Bitcoin is based on its own currency and then also offers a different and more convenient way to pay.

Add on to that, if you like a bit more risk in your investing portfolio, Bitcoins themselves, beyond just the ability to pay for stuff, can go up or down in value so it that way it looks like an investment (or gamble).  One Bitcoin was worth $1000 at the start of the year and now is worth about $7000.  Crazy.

 

What it all means?

For finance and history nerds like me, I think this is a really fascinating study.  I have always said that inflation is way overstated and I think we can find one of the reasons here.  Think about how much easier and faster things are for businesses now with credit cards and other electronic financing compared to the cash economy of my grandfather’s time.  That impacts nearly everything so the stakes are high.  That savings gets passed on to the consumer, and we get lower inflation.  Score.

Second, today, there’s a huge upside to using money innovations like credit card rewards.  It can pay for our Disney vacation every real.  That just became real.

If credit card rewards can do that for me today, and I admit I’m a late adopter when it comes to this stuff, what is the upside still out there.  Are there similar dollars provided by the Paypals and Bitcoins of the world that I just don’t understand enough yet to pick up off the ground?  Probably.

Are there going to be further money innovations in the future that will provide even more dollars?  Certainly.  I don’t know what they are in a similar way my dad in 1983 could never have imagined Paypal or Bitcoin, but they’ll certainly be there.  If today I’m basically getting a vacation for free, who knows what money innovations will bring me over the next few years.

Maybe that should motivate me to figure out this crazy, newfangled Paypal and Bitcoin things.